Our Political editor
Pakistan has secured a significant legal victory in its long-running dispute with India over the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) after the Court of Arbitration at The Hague ruled that the 1960 treaty remains in force and cannot be unilaterally suspended or placed in “abeyance.”
The ruling, issued on Aug. 31, also ordered interim restrictions on certain construction activities at India’s Ratle Hydroelectric Plant in Jammu and Kashmir while related proceedings continue.
Pakistan welcomed the unanimous decision as a reaffirmation of international law and the treaty’s continuing legal force. Islamabad argues that India’s April 2025 decision to suspend the treaty cannot remove India’s obligations under the agreement.
But the immediate consequence of the ruling is not the automatic restoration of normal India-Pakistan water relations.
India has rejected the decision, maintaining that the arbitration court has no jurisdiction and describing it as illegally constituted. New Delhi continues to maintain that the treaty is in abeyance.
What happens next?
The legal battle will continue.
The latest decision principally settles the question of the treaty’s status and provides interim measures, it does not end every technical dispute over India’s Kishenganga and Ratle projects. Further proceedings concerning compliance with the treaty remain ahead.
The Ratle project faces additional scrutiny.
The arbitration court has restricted certain construction activities at Ratle. A separate World Bank-appointed Neutral Expert is expected to issue a final decision concerning the projects’ compliance with the treaty in July 2027.
Pakistan will likely intensify diplomatic pressure on India.
Islamabad can use the ruling to argue before the international community that the treaty remains legally binding and that disputes over the Indus river system should be resolved through the mechanisms established by the treaty.
India-Pakistan tensions may nevertheless remain high.
This is the biggest complication. An international ruling has legal significance, but its practical impact depends heavily on India’s willingness to participate in the treaty’s mechanisms. India has already said it will not recognise the authority of this arbitration process.
Water could become an even more important diplomatic issue.
For Pakistan, the stakes are enormous: the Indus river system is fundamental to its agriculture and water security. The treaty has survived wars and decades of hostility, making the present confrontation particularly significant.
A victory but not yet a final solution
Pakistan’s victory is therefore best understood as a major legal and diplomatic win rather than an immediate guarantee of increased water flows. The ruling strengthens Pakistan’s position that the Indus Waters Treaty remains operational under international law. However, India’s rejection means that the next phase is likely to involve a mixture of legal proceedings, diplomatic pressure and negotiations, rather than an immediate return to the pre 2025 situation.
The crucial test will come over the next year, particularly as the Ratle and Kishenganga disputes move through the remaining technical and legal processes. The Neutral Expert’s expected July 2027 decision could become another major milestone.
24
