Suhail warraich
There is a world of difference between a mere scribbler and Bilawal Bhutto. The latter is far more influential, well-informed, and knowledgeable than the discredited journalist. Regarding the issue of new provinces, Bilawal has stated that a “full stop” has been placed on the debate an interpretation captured by a cartoonist who depicted Bilawal standing atop the grave of the “new provinces” proposal. While Bilawal Bhutto’s statement generally implies that the chapter on new provinces has been closed, he may have misidentified the punctuation mark; what he took for a “full stop” is, in fact, a “comma.” The matter of new provinces was merely deferred temporarily, but the deadline for legislation on this issue set for before March 2027 remains in place.
There has been no shift in the underlying intent to create new provinces. Although the “discredited journalist” has expressed reservations and disagreements regarding this proposal, the facts remain the facts. Reports indicate that the PML-N has agreed to the creation of new provinces in Punjab and is prepared to offer full support and cooperation for the necessary legislation. The condition, however, is that these new provinces would be established following the 2029 elections. While no final decision has been reached regarding the exact number of new provinces to be carved out of Punjab, the proposal to divide the province into four separate entities is gaining the most traction within high-level circles. The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) has no objection to the creation of provinces within Punjab; in fact, the PPP, Jamaat-e-Islami, and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf have already effectively acknowledged the concept of new provinces by establishing separate provincial organisational structures for South Punjab and Central Punjab.
The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) continues to harbour strong objections and reservations regarding the division of Sindh. Bilawal Bhutto has openly voiced these concerns, and his statement in which he declared a “full stop” to the matter reflected his relief that the plan had supposedly been abandoned. However, some PPP leaders prefer to seek a middle ground rather than engage in a confrontation with the establishment over this issue. A proposal has been put forward to designate Islamabad, Gwadar, and Karachi as federal territories, while allowing Karachi to continue serving as the capital of Sindh much like the city of Chandigarh in India. It is worth noting that when the Indian state of Punjab was divided into three parts, Chandigarh was designated as the capital for two of the resulting states, while itself remaining a Union Territory (a federal territory). The proposal for dividing rural Sindh suggests structuring the new provinces in such a way that each includes both underdeveloped areas and developed urban centres. In Balochistan, the PPP’s Chief Minister, Sarfraz Bugti, has already agreed to the creation of new provinces. It is understood that any provincial reorganization within Balochistan will be designed to ensure a significant presence of both Baloch and Pashtun populations in every provincial unit.
In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, given the current imposition of Governor’s Rule and a state of emergency, there is no likelihood of any resistance against the creation of new provinces. Nevertheless, Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman who leads the second-largest political force in the province does not currently consider this an opportune time for the formation of new provinces. Given these preparations, Bilawal Bhutto’s claim of placing a “full stop” on the project appears inaccurate; while there may be “commas” (pauses) in the process, the work remains very much ongoing.
Examining the political dimension of this matter, the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) the primary stakeholder within the government has agreed to the establishment of new provinces, as proposed by the ‘establishment’ (the powers that be), despite harbouring certain reservations. The sole condition stipulated is that these new provinces be created only after the 2029 general elections. This timeline implies that over the next two to two-and-a-half years, Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz Sharif aims to cultivate sufficient goodwill by insulating her development initiatives and projects from political interference to ensure that her party secures power in the four (or at least three) new provinces carved out of Punjab. The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), the other major political stakeholder in the current system, finds itself in a state of deep indecision: agreeing to the division of Sindh would effectively dismantle its political base, while continuing to oppose the creation of new provinces could lead to a prolonged exclusion from power, alongside the prospect of facing rigorous accountability, as has been the case in the past.
Regarding the sensitive issue of creating new provinces, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has historically been in favour. However, given the current climate and considering the possibility that the PPP might withhold its support or remain indecisive one might wonder if the PTI could leverage its cooperation in this process to secure concessions from the establishment for both its incarcerated founder and the party itself. While some observers suggest that the prevailing discourse points toward a potential reconciliation or settlement, there is currently no indication that the party’s founder is open to any such reconciliation or to supporting the establishment’s plan for the creation of new provinces.
The parliamentary leadership of Tehreek-e-Insaf appears inclined to secure concessions for itself by supporting the creation of new provinces; however, it is expected that the party’s founder will not permit such an arrangement. If any door to reconciliation were to open, it would likely be through Bushra Imran, she is the only person capable of persuading the founder to agree to any such understanding, compromise, or deal. Even if, with the founder’s consent, Tehreek-e-Insaf were to vote in favour of the government’s proposal for new provinces, how could a reconciliation between the PML-N and the founder come about? While the ‘establishment’ is not a candidate for the office of Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif and Imran Khan are direct rivals vying for the very same seat; how, then, could a reconciliation between them be possible? Furthermore, would such a move casting a vote in this manner ultimately benefit or harm Tehreek-e-Insaf’s electoral politics and its established narrative? Given the aggressive stance adopted by the party’s “brave” (yet fugitive) YouTubers, they would almost certainly tear apart any reconciliation whether sanctioned by the founder or not within their own narrative, just as they previously savaged the conciliatory attitudes displayed by Barrister Gohar Khan, Gandapur, and Afridi.
The reality is that the legislative process regarding the creation of new provinces will not be easy for any political party. Tehreek-e-Insaf is already grappling with significant challenges; if it supports the government on this legislation, its political credibility will be called into question, yet if it withholds support, its difficulties will only intensify. This phase will be equally challenging for the PML-N. If the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) refuses to cooperate and the PML-N is forced to seek Tehreek-e-Insaf’s support for this legislation, how would these two parties which have been locked in direct confrontation for years justify such mutual support to their respective bases? And how will they manage to appease their respective ‘eagles’ (powerful backers/masters)? The easiest path would be for the alliance between the Peoples Party and the ‘Noon’ (PML-N) to remain intact, or for members of the Tehreek-e-Insaf to support this legislation even against the wishes of their founding leader. Naturally, such an act would be construed as a rebellion against both the party and its founder, and those involved would be denied party tickets in future elections. This is, in fact, a major reason why no such rebellion has occurred within the Tehreek-e-Insaf.
The remaining two months of this year, along with the first three months of the next, will prove highly significant regarding the political parties’ responses to the issue of new provinces. The political conduct displayed during these five months will shape the future of politics, influence the 2029 elections, determine the nature of any potential national or caretaker government, and ultimately decide who will hold power in the future.
