Sajjad Azhar
Pakistan, already ranked among the world’s ten most climate-vulnerable nations, is facing growing concern over predictions of a possible “Super El Niño” later this year — a phenomenon experts warn could intensify heatwaves, disrupt monsoon rains, damage agriculture, and deepen economic instability.
According to the Asian Development Bank, Pakistan suffers annual losses of nearly $14 billion due to climate change. Against this backdrop, global forecasts about the emergence of a Super El Niño have triggered fears that the country could face another cycle of climate-related disasters.
The Pacific Ocean, often described as the “engine” of the world’s weather systems, plays a critical role in regulating rainfall, temperatures, floods, droughts, and agricultural productivity across the globe. Scientists closely monitor changes in the ocean’s surface temperatures because even small shifts can dramatically alter weather patterns worldwide.
What Is a Super El Niño?
Climate records dating back to 1850 show that the 11 hottest years in recorded history have all occurred within the last 25 years. The year 2024 was officially recorded as the hottest year so far, with global temperatures rising 1.29 degrees Celsius above average.
Experts say the Pacific Ocean experienced exceptionally high temperatures this April, exceeding previous April records by almost half a degree Celsius. Normally, trade winds push warm water westward across the Pacific, but during El Niño periods these winds weaken, causing ocean temperatures to rise abnormally.
Meteorologists classify the phenomenon as a “Super El Niño” when sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific rise more than two degrees Celsius above normal. Historically, this has only occurred three times in modern records — in 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16. Scientists also believe a devastating Super El Niño in 1876 contributed to a global famine that killed nearly 50 million people worldwide.
Current projections suggest temperatures could rise between 2.5 and 3 degrees Celsius by autumn, potentially creating one of the strongest El Niño events in recorded history.
Global Economic and Environmental Impact
El Niño affects nearly every aspect of life — from marine ecosystems and fisheries to agriculture and food security. Regions that are normally wet may experience droughts, while dry regions can receive excessive rainfall and flooding.
Climate experts warn that 2026 may not be an ordinary year. With global temperatures already about 1.4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the arrival of a Super El Niño could trigger unprecedented climate disruptions.
Past El Niño events caused enormous economic damage. The 1982-83 episode reportedly cost the global economy $4.1 trillion, while the 1997-98 event caused losses estimated at $5.7 trillion. Analysts fear a stronger event this year could have even more severe consequences, especially at a time when the world economy is already under stress from geopolitical tensions and energy crises.
Why Pakistan Is Particularly Vulnerable
Pakistan and neighboring India have historically experienced major disruptions in monsoon systems during El Niño years. Sometimes rainfall decreases sharply, leading to droughts, while in other cases extreme rainfall triggers catastrophic floods.
Many historians and climate researchers link the devastating Bengal famine of 1876-78 — which killed nearly 10 million people in British India — to the effects of a Super El Niño.
Dr. Muhammad Afzal, Director General of the Pakistan Meteorological Department, told London Post that there is a “90 percent probability” of a strong El Niño forming this year.
He warned that the phenomenon could reduce monsoon rainfall, intensify heatwaves, and severely affect water resources and crop production.
“The biggest impact may be seen during autumn and winter,” he said. “There is a possibility that temperatures in coming years may remain consistently above normal.”
However, renowned meteorologist Dr. Muhammad Hanif urged caution against creating panic by labeling the event a “Super El Niño.”
Speaking to London Post, he argued that the term “Strong El Niño” may be more scientifically appropriate at this stage.
He explained that during the 1997 El Niño, Pakistan’s monsoon was not significantly affected, but winter rainfall declined considerably. According to him, the strongest impacts are likely to emerge during the later phase of the monsoon season, winter, and the following spring.
“If the event persists for a longer duration, Pakistan could face drought-like conditions,” he warned, adding that scientists must continue monitoring the evolving climate patterns carefully.
Threat to Agriculture and Water Security
Pakistan’s agriculture sector contributes nearly 23 percent to the country’s GDP and provides employment to around 37 percent of the population. However, climate change has already weakened the sector significantly.
Agricultural output in major crops has reportedly declined by up to 13.5 percent, with cotton production alone falling by nearly 30 percent. Wheat production this year also remained below official targets.
The last major El Niño event in 2015 brought a deadly heatwave to Karachi that claimed hundreds of lives. Meanwhile, unusually high temperatures are already being recorded in Pakistan’s mountainous regions this year, increasing fears of glacier lake outburst floods and flash flooding.
Experts say Pakistan now faces a dual threat: droughts in some regions and glacial flooding in others — a dangerous combination that could test the country’s already fragile climate resilience systems.
