Guest Column
The Bank of England (BoE) base rate, also known as the bank rate, can affect mortgage repayments. If your mortgage deal has a variable interest rate, as the base rate goes up, your mortgage repayments might also increase. But if it goes down, you could end up paying less.
Banks and Building Societies tend to charge their customers the Bank of England base rate plus a bit extra to borrow for a mortgage.
As of 17 September 2026, the Bank of England has kept Bank Rate at 3.75%, with the MPC voting 6–3 to hold. The next scheduled decision is 5 November 2026.
The outlook has become more uncertain because UK inflation rose to 3.1% in August, while higher energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict are expected to push inflation higher over coming quarters. Three MPC members already voted for a 0.25 percentage-point increase at the September meeting.
My reading of the situation: the Bank is likely to remain on hold at least through the September decision which has now happened and November is the key meeting to watch. Markets have increasingly priced in the possibility of a November hike, while Governor Andrew Bailey has stressed that a rate increase is not inevitable.
There is a significant split in expectations. A Reuters economist poll earlier in September had a median view of 3.75% through at least mid-2027, whereas Goldman Sachs and Citigroup had moved toward forecasts for a hike in November/early 2027 because of persistent inflation and energy-price pressures.
Bottom line: I would treat November 2026 as the next major risk point, rather than assuming rates will stay at 3.75% until 2027. The deciding factors will be energy prices, inflation expectations, wages and the labour market. The Bank itself says the duration and scale of the energy shock will determine the appropriate policy response.
If you’re asking because of a UK mortgage, I can also give you a short analysis of where mortgage rates could be by November 2026, February 2027 and mid-2027.
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